Predictions

Posted: June 7, 2010 in World Cup
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Of winners, losers, dark horses and so forth…

Winners: Not Spain. I don’t think Spain will win the World Cup. Spain probably should win the World Cup, but I have an illogical, hard-to-justify sensation that they will not. Jose Mourinho has laid down the blueprint of how to stop teams like Spain who pride themselves on ball retention and pulling teams apart; he did it with a bloody good defence and some sharp counter-attacking. Of course, Spain have the advantage of two of the world’s best strikers (I like Ibrahimovic, but…) although on the flipside they don’t have Lionel Messi. Brazil have most of Inter’s defence plus their goalkeeper. And Dunga has built his side on defence first, pretty patterns second. For these reasons, Lucio, the Brazilian Chris Morgan, will lift the World Cup.

Losers: Portugal. I would like to say Italy here, with their ageing side, but they have a first-round group easier than Ashley Cole’s hairdresser. So I’m going to go for Cronaldo’s boys, crashing out in a sulk (he doesn’t do tears any more) with Brazil and the Ivory Coast finishing ahead of them. This would have the added bonus of meaning England can’t lose to them for the third consecutive tournament.

Dark Horse: Germany. Their build-up is very reminiscent to 2002 when nobody really said much about them. All I hear at the moment is how hideously out-of-form Klose, Podolski, Gomez (who is admittedly shit) and the rest are, but they have a pretty straightforward group, after which they’ll play a team from England’s group, which should be pretty straightforward in itself. So not to win it, but to get to the semis.

Surprise: Uruguay. No reason other than that Forlan is good and Suarez is apparently pretty hot as well. Plus they’ll kick the shit out of everyone, which is always good in my book.

Who the fuck knows: Argentina. Seriously – they’ve got unquestionably the best forward line in the world (Messi, Higuain, Tevez, Aguero, Milito, and er…Martin Palermo), but a crackhead manager who only plays one up front, who picked a player who hasn’t been capped for 7 years or something (Adrian Garce) simply because he had a dream about him, didn’t bother picking Cambiasso and Zanetti who can sit at home admiring their Champions League medals instead, and almost forgot to call-up Diego Milito altogether. If Maradona pioneers a 4-1-5 formation they’ll piss it.

Golden Boot: David Villa. Bit of a covering bet this one. But whilst it would be a surprise if Spain didn’t win the whole thing, it’d be a shock of epic proportions if they weren’t in the tournament for 6/7 games. During which Villa will hit the net 5/6 times and pick up the award for top-scorer.

England Will…: Get knocked out in the Quarters, again. Which, as long as we play better than the class of 2006, will be a decent achievement and nothing to hang our heads (or our players) over. Granted players like Lampard, Gerrard, and Terry, who won’t get another World Cup, will be disappointed. But a place amongst the best 8 teams in the world? Sounds like the limit of our ambitions to me. I think we will win our group (draw with USA, win against Algeria and then the necessary against Slovenia – Capello will surely rest players if the group’s sewn up by this point) and then scrape by Serbia, and then get done by a better team. I don’t think we’ll lose on penalties this time; we’re not good enough defensively to get that far against a team like Germany/Portugal/France/Italy, for example.

Actual Bets So You Can Laugh At Me Afterwards: France (each way), the 8 group winners. Yes, I’ve bet on the dysfunctional, underachieving French team to make the final. 20/1, irresistable. Also the 8 group winners at about 30/1: France, Argentina, England, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Brazil, Spain.

Let’s see.

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Comments
  1. tom says:

    “The Brazilian Chris Morgan” – great work.

    Incidentally,Google says ” o results found for “The Brazilian Chris Morgan”.”…2008>>>>>>2010

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